AUD/USD

[martyn]

Currently AUDUSD is moving up to the level of 0.69925 and the MACD indicator signaling market still have a strong upward trend, so the market is still expected will move up to the level of 0.70136.

[martyn]

Currently AUDUSD is moving up to the level of 0.70093 and the MACD shows the market has reached a saturation point, it is estimated the market will move down to the level of 0.69905.

[martyn]

AUDUSD is currently moving down to the level of 0.69857 and the MACD indicator signaling the market has reached a saturation point, it is estimated the market will move up to the level of 0.69948.

[martyn]

Currently AUDUSD is moving up to the level of 0.70060 and the market price is already above the MA indicator line, so the market is still expected will move up to the level of 0.70285.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 27th January 2016.


CURRENCY MOVERS OF 27th January 2016.


Main Macro Events This Week





FX News Today


Australia Q4 CPI came in a little hotter than expected, rising to 0.4% q/q, above the median forecast for 0.3%. This contrasted last week’s NZ inflation for the same period, which under shoot expectations in falling to 0.1% q/q, propelling AUDNZD to a seven-week peak at 1.0870. The CNY remained steady, while Chinese December data showed industrial profits contracting in December while consumer sentiment ticked up. Moody’s said that Beijing’s policy support in the pursuit of growth in 2016 will have a credit-negative effect of postponing deleveraging and the reduction of excess capacity.




German Feb GfK consumer confidence steady at 9.4, better than expected with Bloomberg consensus predicting a slight decline in the headline number. The full breakdown, available only until January, showed a further improvement in economic expectations to 4.2 rom 2.9 in the previous month, and a marked rise in the willingness to buy, despite a dip in income expectations. This is likely related to a renewed decline in the willingness to save, which is hardly a surprise considering the low interest rate environment. With the government trying to urge consumers to build up private pension portfolios, this can also have negative long term consequences, however, even if for now the numbers suggest ongoing support from consumption to domestic demand and overall growth. Price expectations remain firmly in negative territory, but are unchanged from the previous month.




China industrial profits sank 2.3% y/y for the Jan-Dec period according to China’s Statistics Bureau, while December industrial profits fell 4.7% y/y due to high costs and tight liquidity curbing companies’ production and operations. Though interest rate cuts had a positive effect in reducing companies’ operating costs, weak demand caused slow growth in production and sales in 2015. That contrasted 3.3% growth in 2014. This is about par for the course after GDP growth slowed to 6.9% last year.


Main Macro Events Today


EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change: the oil inventories are expected to have decreased to 3.452 M from 3.979M. Yesterday The Wall Street Journal reported that Petroleum Institute data showed crude oil inventory had a larger than usual weekly build. This contradicts the consensus expectation.


US New Home Sales: December new home sales are out Wednesday and should reveal a 2.0% headline increase to a 500k (median 505k) pace after the 4.3% November climb to 490k. Other housing measures have been mixed for the month with starts easing to 1,149k from 1,179k in November and existing home sales climbing 5.460 mln from 4.760 mln.


US New Home Sales: December new home sales are out Wednesday and should reveal a 2.0% headline increase to a 500k (median 505k) pace after the 4.3% November climb to 490k. Other housing measures have been mixed for the month with starts easing to 1,149k from 1,179k in November and existing home sales climbing 5.460 mln from 4.760 mln.


AUDUSD UPDATE, FAILURE SWING IN PLAY





AUDUSD, Daily


The AUD trades higher today in the wake of the latest Australian CPI data which came in slightly better than forecasted. However, the AUD remains fragile and exposed to further commodities’ price swings.


Technically, I spot a non-failure swing trade in play (see above chart A,B,C and the potential D target area). Current market price is above the tentative uptrend line, stochastic analysis is positive and at the time of writing price is above the 0.7015 resistance level. My conclusion supports long positions for short term traders for target 1 at 0.7090 and target 2 at 0.7130.





Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


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Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
&
John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist





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[martyn]

AUDUSD is currently moving up to the level of 0.70631, WMR indicator signaling the market will create a new trend, it is estimated the market will move down to the level of 0.70499.

[martyn]

Currently AUDUSD is moving up to the level of 0.70818, MACD signaled the market has reached a saturation point, it is estimated the market will move down to the level of 0.70603.

[martyn]

At this time AUDUSD is moving down to the level of 0.70782, WMR indicator signaling the market price have reached a saturation point, it is estimated the market will move up to the level of 0.70941.

[martyn]

AUDUSD is currently moving down to the level of 0.70478, the CCI indicator signaling the market has reached a saturation point, it is estimated the market will move up to the level of 0.70644.

[martyn]

AUDUSD is currently moving up to the level of 0.70613 and the market price is already above the MA indicator line, so the market is still expected will move up to the level of 0.70928.