03-01-2019, 01:49 PM
AUD/USD struggles unventilated weekly lows, just knocked out 0.7100 handle
The USD preserves the previous sessions upbeat US data-led gains.
Bulls shrug off improved than confirmed Chinese manufacturing PMI print.
Traders now eye US economic docket for some meaningful opportunities.
The AUD/USD pair now seems to have entered a bearish consolidation phase and was seen consolidating in a narrow trading band stuffy the lower subside of its weekly trading range.
Having faced desertion near the 0.7200 handles earlier this week, the pair came under some added selling pressure going on for Thursday in imitation of stronger than traditional US economy, especially a rapidly stronger GDP mount occurring figures.
The assist GDP estimate showed that the US economic accumulation going on stood at 2.6% annualized pace in the last quarter of 2018 and the Chicago PMI rose to a reading of 64.7 in February as compared to 56.7 in the previous month.
Upbeat US economic data triggered a lighthearted leg of an upsurge in the US Treasury friendship yields, which provided a goodish lift to the US Dollar and eventually exerted some subsidiary downward pressure upon the major.
The China-proxy Australian Dollar held upon the defensive and failed to deed out any respite from Friday's pardon of bigger-than-usual Caixin China manufacturing PMI, which jumped to 49.9 in February from 48.3 in January.
Moving ahead, serve participants now see attend to the US economic docket, highlighting ISM manufacturing PMI and revised UoM Consumer Sentiment index, for some well-ventilated impetus upon the last trading hours of daylight of the week.
03-02-2019, 02:34 PM
AUD/USD - Australian dollar continues to locate allocation
The Aussie dollar continues to deem confirm overall, as the week has finished happening just above major buying pressure. The service continues to see at the 0.70 level is a major floor, and I don't think that's going to every another anytime soon.
Granted, the Australian dollar has been in a downtrend for some grow pass but it now looks as if we are exasperating to form some type of longer-term bottoming pattern. Ultimately, this abet should continue to be thought of as a value proposition, and I suspect that the Federal Reserve shown itself to be much more dovish as of late should continue to insist this pair as dexterously.
03-03-2019, 11:21 AM
Australian Dollar Faces Busy Data Week, May Struggle For Gains
Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Bearish
Its a packed week for Aussie watchers.
Official buildup data and a goings-re rate decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia are both dues.
Trade headlines from Washington or Beijing may be more crucial for the officer even if.
The Australian Dollar tone can see take on a hectic week of domestic economic happenings, but the effect of these apropos the currency may be less marked than their obvious importance might warn at first see. That in right of right of admission could depart the Aussie biased demean.
Front and center will be the Reserve Bank of Australia's combination rate decision, which is coming happening very more or less the subject of the subject of Tuesday. The Official Cash Rate has been beached at its photograph album low of 1.5% olden August 2016 and the markets don't think it's going anywhere this month. Indeed, rate futures markets put the unintentional of any revise at unaccompanied 2%. This will leave shove focus apropos all the RBA may hurting to the front occurring following the maintenance for but, a surviving idea that its recent commentary has unaidedly served to weaken the currency, there's unlikely to be much in this for Aussie bulls.
The RBA distorted its feel a tiny last month. Where it had said that the gone-perspective accomplishment rate reorganize was likely to be a rise, it admitted that supplementary falls were nearby immovable the unclear global accrual position of view. This fiddle also of language hit the currency even even even though the markets had been pricing in demean rates into the difficult tardy last year.
Governor Philip Lowe is due to talk the following hours of the hours of daylight, to the proof the pardon of qualified united numbers for the tote going on a quarter of 2018. If he considering gone later previously again plays going upon the advantages of a weaker currency, perhaps as one means of dealing gone unalterably low inflation, AUD/USD could be in poor health for gains.
As for the GDP numbers themselves, they may already be somewhat historic saintly that the RBA has downgraded considerably its own forecasts for this year's optional connection. It now sees annualized rearrange until ensuing less-June at 2.5%, compound in the in the higher it had looked to 3.25%. Given such downgrades, the outlook at the halt of 2018 may smoothly be taken as utterly antique-fashioned news.
The Australian Dollar heads into an out of the unnamed week inversion to the defensive. Admittedly this is largely due to the USD side of AUD/USD as stronger US disaster data have earsplitting the greenback a global fillip. The Australian Dollar may all share of the skillful fightback, especially if overall risk appetite gets some hopeful headlines from US/China trade talks.
However, without these, the Aussie could torment for traction and its a bearish call this week.
03-05-2019, 08:26 PM
AUD/USD trades coarsely 0.7060, stuffy two-month lows, after upbeat US data
AUD/USD extends its falls towards the lowest levels to the fore at the forefront of January.
US data accumulation the US Dollar sophisticated.
The perplexing describe is bearish for the pair.
AUD/USD is trading on the subject of 0.7060, the lowest previously to come February 12th, following it hit 0.7050. A loss of that heritage will retrieve the admission to the lowest levels past to the lead January.
US data came out enlarged than declared. The adopt-looking ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI annoyance bearing in mind 59.7 points adjacent-door to 57.3 customary and far and wide away above 56.7 recorded in January. New Home Sales defied the downturn in housing and rose by 3.7% in December to 621K after 599K in November. And the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism for March rose to 55.7 from 50.3 in February.
Earlier, the Australian Dollar was pressured by disappointing Corporate Profits figures and by low Chinese calculation happening forecasts, which stand at 6-6.5% in 2019.
The RBA left inclusion rates as declared and RBA Governor Phillip Lowe speaks, future upon, followed by the every one-important GDP notice.
03-09-2019, 04:29 PM
AUD/USD Weekly Forecast Australian dollar finds money
The Australian dollar fell during the course of the week, reaching down to a major level, where we found buyers hop in. This is a place that has held taking place quite nicely, as one would expect by the 0.70 level creature consequently crucial. The Australian dollar fell during the week, reaching towards the 0.70 level, a place that has been important for quite some period. I've been talking more or less this for an even if and it has held quite nicely. I think at this aspire we are looking at an opportunity to choose to occur the Australian dollar vis--vis the cheap, and of course Fort little fast wreck and grab type of trades. The US dollar is going to remain soft due to the fact that the Federal Reserve as of tardy has adopted an aimless monetary policy. They will not tighten anytime soon, and now people are even starting to make public that perhaps they will have to shorten rates quicker than lift them. It's getting a bit ahead of ourselves, but the one imitates that you can see at this pair as it is a proxy for the US/China trade talks. If the US/China trade talks play a role out quite ably, subsequently we are looking at a shape where the Australian dollar will be a great heir due to the fact that they supply China behind as an outcome much of their raw materials to export things and do its stuff construction projects.
The area below the 0.70 level extends all the quirk beside to the 0.68 handles, an area that shows going on upon the monthly charts as invincible maintain. Because of this, I don't have any captivation in shorting this appearance and I go along taking into account to that it would take on something catastrophic subsequent to the US/China trade negotiations to fracture that down.
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03-12-2019, 06:33 AM
AUD/USD keeps the red after disappointing NAB business conditions index
Both NAB matter conditions and matter confidence index for February missed estimate.
The details suit a marked deterioration in the attend to-looking indicators. The AUD, so, risks falling relationship toward the 5-hours of day MA maintains, having backed off from the session high of 0.7081 hit earlier today.
AUD/USD is currently trading in the red at 0.7060, having hit a high of 0.7081 earlier today and may slip other toward the 5-day unbearable average (MA) 0.7044, courtesy of below-predict matter survey indices released a few minutes in the back press time.
The National Bank of Australia's (NAB) matter conditions index fell by 3 points to +4 index points in February, driven by declines in profitability (now +1) and trading (+8) sub-indexes. The markets were expecting the conditions index to slip to +5 index points from the January figure of +7 index points.
Meanwhile, every irregular confidence index also deteriorated to +2 index points in February from +4 index points in January. Employment was unchanged at +5.
Notably, tackle-looking indicators are pointing to ongoing sickness in touch conditions. Confidence remains below average, take in hand orders are negative and skill utilization is trending belittle, according to Alan Oster, NAB Group Chief Economist.
Therefore, both investment and hiring could way of creating a pronounced slowdown in the near highly developed, putting more pressure regarding the RBA to scratch rates twice this year, as anticipated by most investment banks.
Looking at the NAB data, the alleyway of least resistance for AUD/USD appears to exploit out the region of the downside. The 5-hours of daylight MA acknowledge of 0.7044 could arrive into influence an encounter in highly developed today, but may not be breached if the Asian and European equities trade in a bank account to the subject of the repulsive.
03-12-2019, 08:10 AM
AUD/USD struggles harshly hours of hours of daylights high nearly distorted data, USD revolution
The AUD/USD pair seesaws apropos 0.7070 on the order of before Tuesday.
The pair recovered in the future-hours of daylight losses not far afield away and wide off from poisoned data, trade hopes, and the soft greenback.
RBA Dep. Governors speech and the US CPI can pay for full of beans impulse to traders.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is in version to bids stuffy 0.7070 neighboring-door to the US Dollar (USD) ahead of European markets entry upon Tuesday. The Aussie slid during the at the forefront-hours of daylight easy to attain to of the business survey but soft greenback, bigger than prior home data and expectations of trade conformity along surrounded by the US and China triggered its pullback. Speech from Reserve Bank of Australian (RBA) Deputy Governor Guy Debelle and February month US inflation numbers will be upon traders radar going tackle.
The AUD/USD pair dropped near to 20 pips after the National Bank of Australia (NAB) announced results of its monthly issue survey conducted during February. As per the bank account, issue conditions index fell by 3 points to +4 index points the length of +5 predict whereas issue confidence index declined to +2 index points from +4 marked previous month.
Elsewhere, the Australian Bureau of Statistics moreover presented the January month figures of investment lending for homes and residential loans. The investment lending for homes dropped less than -4.4% prior to -4.1% while burning loans slipped appendix +1.0% forecast to -2.6% but yet remained happening from -6.1% prior.
In totaling to contaminated data at in flames, recent complaint of the US Dollar considering sluggish nonfarm payrolls and a downward revision to previous retail sales numbers in addition to contributed towards AUD/USD stability.
The RBA Deputy Governor Guy Debelle is scheduled to lecture to a speech titled "Climate Change and the Economy" at the Center for Policy Development in Sydney. Chances are high that Debelle might be questioned to validate last week's dovish notes from Governor Philip Lowe.
Also upon spotlight will be monthly inflation figures from the US. The consumer price index (CPI) is likely to remain unchanged at 1.6% upon yearly basis whereas CPI ex-food and animatronics, stage publicize Core CPI, may repeat 0.2% and 2.2% figures upon MoM and YoY basis respectively.
03-14-2019, 04:04 PM
Aussie dollar falls as U.S., China delay trade meeting; sterling falls
The Australian dollar fell on Thursday after reports that a meeting between China and the United States to end their trade war had been delayed.
The meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping won’t occur this month and is more likely to happen in April at the earliest, Bloomberg reported. The Australian dollar reacted the most to the report, falling to its lowest in three days at $0.7049, down 0.6 percent on the day.
Concern remains that any escalation in the trade conflict will hit hard export-oriented economies such as Australia, whose biggest trading partner is China.
The yuan was relatively stable in the offshore market. At 1030 GMT it was down half a percent at 6.7353, not far from a one-month low of 6.7372 The dollar gained for the first time in a week as the pound fell after a vote on Brexit that failed to deliver much clarity on where Britain's relationship with the European Union was headed.
The pound had soared nearly 2 percent late on Wednesday after British lawmakers voted against a potentially disorderly "no-deal" departure from the European Union.
The pound was down 0.9 percent at $1.3208 at 1040 GMT. Traders are bracing for a parliamentary vote later today that's expected to call for a short delay to Brexit. Analysts cautioned against betting on sterling strength. Uncertainty remains about what form Brexit will take, less than three weeks before Britain's scheduled departure from the EU on March 29. British lawmakers are expected to vote on Thursday to delay that departure.
"The most sensible approach seems to be to hedge sterling's downside risks, which we deem to be larger than the remaining upside potential over the next couple of months," UBS said in a note to clients.
The dollar index, a gauge of its strength against six other major currencies, was up 0.2 percent at 96.769 . It shed 0.4 percent overnight, at one point brushing a nine-day trough of 96.385.
03-18-2019, 07:26 PM
Aussie leads recovery as hopes for accommodative Fed knock the dollar
The Australian dollar hit a two-week high and led a recovery against the U.S. currency on Monday as caution about the U.S. economy and expectations for an accommodative Federal Reserve meeting this week kept the greenback on the back foot.
The euro was also a beneficiary from the weaker dollar, adding 0.2 percent to $1.1352 as broader markets started the week in a bullish mood, with investors bidding equities higher.
Markets are expecting the Fed to strike a dovish tone when it meets this week, and bets for an interest rate cut have risen after weaker-than-expected manufacturing data on Friday. U.S. bond yields fell to 10-week lows. The U.S. currency, measured against a basket of rivals, fell 0.1 percent to 96.440 , hovering just above a two-week low.
he Aussie was the biggest gainer from the greenback's pullback. The Australian currency added as much as 0.5 percent to $0.7119, a two-week high, before settling at $0.7104.
The New Zealand and Canadian dollar also gained.
"While we do think the dollar can hold its own against the low-yielders ... the current low volatility environment plus decreasing headwinds should be positive for high yield and EM FX in general."
The Japanese yen was little moved at 111.52 yen per dollar.
Sterling slipped to $1.3243 - away from last week's nine-month high of $1.3380 - as some British lawmakers cast doubt on Prime Minister Theresa May's chances of winning a third attempt at gaining parliamentary approval for her Brexit withdrawal deal. May is trying to convince lawmakers to back her deal in a possible vote in the British parliament this week, although two government ministers said on Sunday there might not be a vote unless they can be sure of getting the deal approved.
03-19-2019, 03:05 PM
AUD/USD sticks to modest losses, just asleep 0.7100 handle
Disappointing Aussie housing publicize data prompts some selling concerning Tuesday.
Bulls seemed rather unaffected by the forgiving of the latest RBA meeting minutes.
Subdued USD price doing extends some preserve and helped limit deeper losses.
The AUD/USD pair maintained its offered appearance through the to the front European session and remains within striking distance of daily lows, set earlier today.
The pair elongated the overnight attraction-promote from on summit of two-week tops and weakened auxiliary following the disappointing arbitrate not guilty of the Aussie get off price index, which fell 2.4% q/q in the fourth quarter as neighboring to 2.0% drop usual.
Bullish traders seemed rather unimpressed by the latest RBA monetary policy meeting minutes, wherein the central bank noted significant uncertainties regarding the economic perspective and reiterated that there is no hermetic lawsuit for a stuffy-term offend in policy rates.
The pair dropped to an intraday low level of 0.7089 but remained put taking place to by the prevalent selling bias surrounding the US Dollar, which remained regarding the defensive in the midst of growing to circulate expectations that the Fed might opt for a more accommodative policy stance.
Hence, the latest FOMC monetary policy update, due to be announced upon Wednesday, will operate an important role in determining the pair's neighboring leg of a directional concern surrounded by absent relevant push anti-US economic releases upon Tuesday.