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Thread: GBP/USD

  1. #151
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    Problems after the UK's exit from the EU, an impressive trade deficit and the country's budget deficit continue to put pressure on the pound. And even the dollar, which has weakened against other currencies, does not allow the GBP/USD pair to return to growth. We see how the British currency, step by step, is losing ground starting from February 24. Last week the pair was able to grow only to 1.3920. This was followed by a reversal and, as predicted by graphical analysіs, it dropped to the level of 1.3670. As for the final chord, it sounded at the height of 1.3710;
    At the moment, the absolute advantage for this pair is on the side of the bears. 85% of oscillators and 100% trend іndicators on H4 are painted red. On D1 it is 85% and 80%, respectively. 65% of аnalysts also vote for the further fall of the pair. The nearest support is 1.3670, the target is a transition to the zone 1.3575-1.3610. Graphical analysіs on D1 also draws the continuation of the downward trend. However, according to its forecast, the pair may rise to the resistance level of 1.3900 before heading south.
    Even though the sell-off of the pound continues, many аnalysts note that the long-term uptrend, which began on March 20, 2020, has not been affected. And the fall of the last 6 weeks can be considered as a correction, after which the British currency may continue its growth. The pound will regain its attractiveness, especially if large capital that left it due to Brexit begins to return to the country. The pound is also supported by the successes of the early stages of vaccination against COVID-19. In this case, according to 70% of еxperts, the GBP/USD pair has many chances to regain its lost positions and return first to the 1.4000 zone, and then retest the February 24 high at 1.4240 before the end of spring;
    Here you can find some general answers to the most common questions about Fоrеx.
    Last edited by SandraTrader; 04-14-2021 at 06:03 PM.

  2. #152
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    The weakening dollar supported the British currency, the fall of the GBP/USD pair stopped, and it even managed to climb 120 points. Thus, its movement over the past four weeks can be defined as lateralin channel 1.3670-1.3920. As for the last chord, the pair placed it in the central zone of this channel, ending the trading session at 1.3840;
    Problems after the UK's exit from the EU, an impressive trade deficit and the country's budget deficit continue to put pressure on the pound. And even the dollar, which weakened against other currencies, let the GBP/USD pair get just a sideways trend, but never return to sustainable growth.
    The British currency may regain its attractiveness, especially if large capital that left it due to Brexit begins to return to the country. The pound is also supported by the successes of vaccination against COVID-19. Therefore, some analysts believe that the long-term uptrend, which began on March 20, 2020, is too early to be buried, and the pair has a chance to continue its movement to the north. 30% of еxperts vote for the bullish forecast at the moment. However, when switching to forecasting by the end of spring, their number doubles: up to 60%. The nearest resistance levels are 1.3920 and 1.4000.
    In the meantime, the overwhelming majority of analysts, supported by graphical analysіs on D1, first expect the pair to drop to the lower border of the 1.3670-1.3920 trading channel, and in case of its breakdown, the pair will move to the 1.3600 zone.
    Among the events of the coming week that can influence the formation of local trends, we can note the release of statistics on the UK labor market on Tuesday April 20, data on the consumer market on Wednesday April 21, and business activity in the Markit service sector.* on Friday April 23. Noteworthy is the speech of the head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey on April 21 as well;
    Here you can find some general answers to the most common questions about Fоrеx.
    Last edited by SandraTrader; 04-21-2021 at 11:04 PM.

  3. #153
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    First, a few words about another pair, GBC/USD, which may appear in the foreseeable future. While in some countries, regulators ban cryptocurrencies (for example, in Turkey), in others they are trying to put them at their service. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has recently conducted a survey and it has turned out that of 66 central banks, 52 are thinking about their own digital currency. And one of these reflective regulators is the Bank of England, backed by one of the country's largest financial conglomerates, Barclays.
    The digital pound has already received a playful name "Britcoin", which makes those who know what "Brit Milah" smile. For those who are not in the know, let us explain: this is a rite of circumcision among religious Jews. However, if Brit Milah is rooted in the deep past, then Britcoin is the digital future of the UK that has broken away from the EU.
    But until the GBC/USD pair has appeared in the list of trading instruments, let us return to its “older sister”, the GBP/USD pair. It went up at the beginning of the week, thanks to the weakening dollar, like EUR/USD. The pair reached a height of 1.4010 on Tuesday, having added 170 points. However, it did not manage to fix above the 1.4000 horizon: the pound lost all its advantage two days later, and the pair dropped to the level of 1.3825. At the very end of the trading week, the pound was helped by strong statistics on business activity in the services sector: the Markit index rose from 56.3 to 60.1 (against the forecast of 59.0) over the month, thanks to which the pair grew slightly and completed the five-day period at 1.3885;
    A number of еxperts believe that successful vaccination of the population will help warm up the UK economy. Quarantine restrictions have been severely relaxed in recent weeks, pubs and restaurants have opened. Macro statistics are encouraging. However, Brexit-related concerns, massive trade deficits and UK budget deficits continue to weigh on the pound. But the dollar is also under pressure. Perhaps that is why the forecast for the GBP/USD pair looks rather contradictory: 45% of еxperts vote for its movement to the north, 35% to the south and the remaining 20% to the east. The technical аnalysis readings on H4 look contradictory as well.
    On D1, thanks to the uptrend that began 13 months ago, most of the oscillators (65%) and trend іndicators (85%) look up. Graphical аnalysis also indicates that the pair will try again to storm the 1.40000 high, but after that it will go down to the support in the 1.3670-1.3700 zone. The nearest resistance level is 1.3920, the nearest support is 1.3800;
    Here you can find some general answers to the most common questions about Fоrеx.

  4. #154
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    When providing last week's forecast for the pair, 45% of еxperts voted for its move north, 35% to the south and the remaining 20% to the east.
    As expected by most of them (45%), the pound was strengthening its positions the first four days, and investors started to hope that the GBP/USD pair would break through the 1.4000 level again and return to steady growth, as it had been since the end of March 2020 until the end of February 2021 However, having reached 1.3975, its movement stalled, the bearish pressure intensified, and it collapsed downward at the very end of the week, as 35% of analysts had expected. Pushed by the results of the auction held by the US Treasury, the pair reached the local bottom at the 1.3800 horizon. This was followed by a couple of small bounces and a finish at 1.3810, which can be considered the Pivot Point of the last 9 weeks. So, those 20% of еxperts who voted for the sideways trend of the pair were also satisfied;
    The main event for the British currency will be the meeting of the Bank of England on Thursday, May 6, which will be devoted to monetary policy. The interest rate is most likely to remain unchanged at 0.1%. As for QE, the volume of purchases of government bonds may be reduced from £895 to 875 billion. If this happens, the market will receive a sіgnal about the intention of the British regulator to start tightening its policy.
    The bank may also revise its forecasts regarding the speed of economic recovery in the country. There are many reasons for this. Thus, unemployment in Great Britain decreased by 0.1% in the first quarter, from 5.0% to 4.9%. Almost 30 million people have already been vaccinated in the country, of whom more than 2.5 million received two doses of vaccines against COVID-19. Some of the quarantine restrictions have been removed. And all these are positive factors for the pound, which may push the GBP/USD pair up again. This is confirmed by the forecasts of graphical аnalysis on H4 and D1.
    As for the readings of technical іndicators, they look rather indistinct on D1 due to the sideways movement of recent weeks. On H4, naturally, most are painted red, although 25% of oscillators sіgnal the pair is oversold.
    As for the еxperts, 60% expect the pair to grow at least to the level of 1.4000. In case it manages to break through it, the next target is 1.4240. The nearest resistance levels are 1.3860, 1.3925 and 1.3975.
    The remaining 40% of analysts side with the bears. The main support is in the zone 1.3670-1.3700, then - 1.3600;
    Here you can find some general answers to the most common questions about Fоrеx.
    Last edited by SandraTrader; 05-06-2021 at 06:31 PM.

  5. #155
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    The forecast has turned out to be absolutely correct in this case as well. This pair has been moving in a side channel 1.3670-1.4000 for 10 weeks. And the majority of еxperts had voted for the fact that, having rebounced off the central zone of this corridor, the pair would go up and reach its upper border. This is what actually happened. Having started on Monday at 1.3810, the pair reached the height of 1.4000 on Friday, not far from where, at 1.3990, it finished the working week;
    The forecast for this pair for the coming week is exactly the opposite of the previous one. If the majority of еxperts voted for the rise of the pair from the central part of the 1.3670-1.4000 channel to its upper border a week ago, now 70% of аnalysts, along with graphical аnalysis, predict it will return back to its center at 1.3800. The decision of the Bank of England, which kept interest rates and the volume of the quantitative easing (QE) programme unchanged at its May 06 meeting, should contribute to this.
    True, the regulator has reduced the rate of asset buybacks and is optimistic about the rate of economic recovery. But demand for the pound is being held back by the decision to hold interest rates until there are clear signs of a recovery in output and an inflation rate of 2%. The only one who voted to cut QE volumes was the chief economist of the Bank of England, Andrew Haldane. But his vote doesn't mean much as he retires in a month.
    Only 30% of еxperts believe that the GBP/USD pair will be able to break out of the 10-week trading range and rise above the level of 1.4000. In this case, it will rush to the February 24 high of 1.4240, and the resistance levels on its way will be the levels of 1.4085 and 1.4180.
    As for technical аnalysis, its readings are very similar to those for the EUR/USD pair: 100% of the trend indicators and 85% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 point north. The remaining 15% of the oscillators give sіgnals that the pair is overbought.
    Looking at the economic calendar for the coming week, I recall the movie "The King's Speech", dedicated to the British monarch George VI. It is just that it will the speech ofthe head of the Bank of England, and it will be a whole series, since Andrew Bailey will give speeches on May 11, 12, and 13. However, investors are unlikely to hear anything from him that could seriously affect their mood. Of greater interest are the UK GDP and consumer market data, which will be published on Wednesday May 12;
    Here you can find some general answers to the most common questions about Fоrеx.
    Last edited by SandraTrader; 05-14-2021 at 12:03 AM.

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