NZD/USD

[forexearlywarning]

The NZD/USD is trending down on the largest time frames, MN and W1 time frames. Set a support alert at 0.6500, when the alert hits, look for NZD weakness or USD strength or both to confirm the trade entry. Below 0,6500 we see no nearby support. See the example sell confirmation signal below..

5-29-2015 NZD Weakness.jpg

[martyn]

NZDUSD is currently being moved down to the level of 0.6552 and Bollinger band indicator shows the market still have a strong downward trend. It is estimated that the market is still going to move down to the lowest level.

[martyn]

NZDUSD is currently being moved down to the level of 0.65623 and the market price has been below the MA indicator line. It is estimated that the market will move down to the level of 0.65524.

[martyn]

NZDUSD is currently being moved down to the level of 0.64679 and WMR indicator signaling the market will create a new trend, it is estimated NZDUSD will move up to the level of 0.64937.

[martyn]

Currently NZDUSD was moving up to the level of 0.64309 and the market price already above the MA indicator line. It is estimated that the market will move up to the level of 0.64487.

[martyn]

NZDUSD is now moving down to the level of 0.64430 and the MACD indicator signaling market still have a strong downward trend, so the market is still expected will move down to the level of 0.64321.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 19th January 2016.


CURRENCY MOVERS OF 19th January 2016.


MACRO EVENTS AND NEWS





FX News Today


The yen is weaker amid improved risk appetite, while commodity currencies have firmed. This comes with oil and most other commodity prices gaining over 1% in the Asia session, and with stock markets rebounding, led by 3%-plus advances in the main China indexes. AUDJPY, which is the currency cross most correlative with China market sentiment, is up by 1.3% after Chinese YoY GDP numbers weren’t worse than expected. The AUD, meanwhile, is showing a 0.6% gain, and the CAD a 0.7% rise, against the USD. A further whittling in the yen’s safe haven premium has seen USDJPY climbed over 0.5% to the upper 117s. The EUR is mixed, down versus the USD but up versus the JPY.


China growth was weakest in 25 years, as shown by the latest GDP figures. The Q4 growth disappointed slightly (1.6% instead of 1.7% consensus expectation) and was down by 0.2% from the previous quarter. The year on year GDP change was in line with the expectations at 6.8% but was 0.1% slower than the previous figure. Chinese government’s transition from infrastructure spending and export oriented economy to a consumer spending oriented economy hasn’t happened as quickly as was expected. Industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment all slowed in December but the overall growth in the Chinese economy is still encouraging.


German Dec HICP was confirmed at 0.2% y/y, the national CPI rate at 0.3% y/y, weaker than originally expected, but in line with preliminary data. National prices were down -0.1% m/m, driven by a 14.5% m/m drop in oil prices and a -4.4% m/m decline in petrol prices. Oil still continues to drive overall inflation trends then and excluding household energy and petrol, the headline rate would have been 1.1% y/y. Still this is down from 1.3% y/y in the previous month and 1.4% y/y in October, which will back the arguments of the doves at the ECB, which already pushed for more easing measures in December against German resistance. The current market rout and the drop in oil prices since then, which lead to even more pressure on Draghi to top up the measures already announced in December.


Main Macro Events Today


German ZEW:The January set of confidence readings are likely to reflect the deterioration in global sentiment this year, especially ZEW Investor Confidence, which is seen falling to 9.0 (med 8.5) from 16.1 in December. Together with the ongoing rout on global stock markets and the pressure on oil prices, the numbers will likely see Draghi delivering a dovish press conference on Thursday, even if it seems the ECB will follow the BoE’s example and defer a final judgement of the impact of lower oil prices and slowing growth in China, to the next update of official forecasts and projections, which for the ECB is in March.


BoE Governor Speech: Market participants are expecting the governor Carney to shed light on the Bank of England’s future monetary policy. We expect the BoE to hike interest rates by 25bp in Q2 2016, which would take the repo rate to 0.75%. This would be the first policy change since March 2009, and the first tightening since July 2007.


US NAHB housing market index: is out today and forecast to rise to 62 in January from 61.


NZDUSD UPDATE, SHORT TERM PRICE TO BOUNCE HIGHER





NZDUSD, 4 Hour


The macro backdrop for the Kiwi (NZD) remains bearish with recent data showing weak credit card retail sales in New Zealand, along with the risk off global sentiment that kicked off the start of the year, the currency has been kept under pressure.


My expectation for the short term is that the NZD may attempt a short term price move higher since the NZDUSD price bounced higher at the 76.4% Fibo retracement level. This price bounce higher leaves me with the view that global risk taking might be attempting a switch back on. My conclusion supports long positions for a price target at 0.6540.


In the long term picture WTI Crude is near 2003 lows with the next monthly support level at 24 dollars while there are significant resistance levels relatively close at 33.20 (year 01/2009 low) and 37.75 (08/2015).


PAIR: NZDUSD
SOPPORTS: 0.6400
RESISTANCES: 0.6490


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


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Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex
&
John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex



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[martyn]

NZDUSD is currently being moved down with breakout pattern to the level of 0.64828, MACD signaled the market has reached a saturation point, it is estimated the market will move up to level 0.64944.

[martyn]

NZDUSD is now moving down to the level of 0.64805, WMR indicator shows the market still have a strong downward trend, so the market is still expected will move down to the level of 0.64679.

[martyn]

NZDUSD is now moving up to the level of 0.64871 and the market price is already above the MA indicator line, so the market is still expected will move up to the level of 0.65010.