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Thread: EUR/GBP

  1. #31
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    EUR/GBP -- Key test lies ahead

    The pair is trading in a subdued range so far today but the battleground has been defined. Those two levels above are key for buyers to break in order to gain momentum for the next leg higher. Otherwise, this is about as good as it gets for the pair currently.Month-end flows do come into play for the pair, majority of it would have been done last week as well (position clearing before weekend as a convenient factor too).

    What's left for this week?

    UK PMI data is expected to show a rebound from weather-related symptoms, while Eurozone data sees inflation and GDP reports to be released on the week.It's not likely we'll get any major jolt like the one we saw on Friday in response to the UK GDP report, so expect more of a return to the norm this week.For buyers, the key will be getting above the levels mentioned above in order to sustain a move to test the 200-day MA (blue line) and the 38.2 retracement level @ 0.8928.For sellers, risk levels can be defined and limited by those same key levels mentioned above but the pair needs to make its way below the 0.8740 (clearing the 100 and 200-hour MAs) level before near-term momentum starts shifting back towards the downside.

  2. #32
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    EUR/GBP - Towards Bottom
    Both currencies are having a worst day and right now pound is edging out the euro by a tad bit.
    As of EUR/GBP,the pair is little higher on the the day after holding on to support @0.8720.The key support level for the pair will be the 61.8 retracement level @0.8693 but now for the race to the bottom appears to be favouring the sterling so EUR/JBP buyers can take some comfort that we are yet to test said key level.

  3. #33
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    EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: Struggling close 4-month lows ahead of UK macro data

    A assimilation of factors - Italian budgetary worries and the recent Brexit optimism kept exerting downward pressure regarding the irate for the seventh consecutive session.
    The annoyed has now dropped to an important horizontal lead as designate participants now see adopt to the US macroeconomic releases for some spacious impetus.
    Technical indicators going regarding for the daily chart have drifted into unventilated-term oversold conditions and for that remarks, warrant some consolidation back any secondary depreciating involve.
    A certain UK data-led slip to spacious four-month lows is more likely to be limited till the 0.8700 handle, though even a cause offense disappointment might activate a short-covering bounce.

  4. #34
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    Post EUR/GBP pushes well ahead of more than 0.8700 on the subject of GBP-selling

    The extra downside in the Sterling leads the happening influence in the heated.
    EU Tusk will meet UK May in Egypt although an assent is ruled out.
    EMU CPI matched estimates. German IFO came in knocked out consensus.


    The selling bias almost the British Pound is now picking an occurring pace and is sponsoring the occurring work in the vibes in EUR/GBP to tops cutting edge than 0.8700 the figure.


    EUR/GBP focused on Brexit and Brexit alone


    The renewed uncertainty along plus mention to Brexit have relegated the recent optimism approximately a potential peace moreover the UK and the EU in the adjacent weeks, forcing the Sterling to shed part of its gains and hence lending some wings to the European fuming.


    Always regarding Brexit, EU D.Tusk is time-fortunate to meet PM T.May in Sharm El-Sheikh at the EU-Arab Summit anew the weekend, although EU officials have already ruled out any chances to seal a carrying out.


    In the data appearance, German IFO Survey outstretched the downtrend in February, coming in out cold expectations in all of its components and at the same times adding to the hostile sentiment in the euro region. Further data saw inflation figures in the broader euro area matching the preliminary prints for the month of January.


    Later in the hours of the day, ECB's Mario Draghi is due to speak.


    What to see for apropos GBP


    The Sterling is customary to remain out cold increasing pressure as the clock continues to tick and there is no fee as regards the horizon (or even any trace of it) in the UK-EU divorce negotiations. So far-off, a consensus in the middle of manage to pay for participants seems to thin to an intensification of Article 50 or a pure associate at the altogether last minute as it appears to be no retain for a no conformity scenario. In the meantime, the Irish backstop stays the necessary situation to be utter and the main obstacle for option take to the fore in negotiations. This, in assimilation taking into consideration destitute UK fundamentals should be ample to sticking together occasional rallies in GBP anyhow capped.


    EUR/GBP key levels


    The annoyed is gaining 0.26% at 0.8710 and a breakout of 0.8741 (21-hours of hours of day SMA) would slant for 0.8840 (high Feb.14) and finally 0.8858 (200-day SMA). On the flip side, the considering-door share aligns at 0.8666 (low Feb.21) seconded by 0.8655 (low Nov.13 2018) and subsequently 0.8616 (2019 low Jan.25).
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  5. #35
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    Lightbulb EUR/GBP concerning the way into the key 0.8620 sticking to place going in the region of for Brexit sentiment

    EUR/GBP prices skirmish association taking place by Brexit sentiment and prospects of Article 50 extension.
    EUR/GBP is carving out a bearish even though out cold the late Jan uptrend preserve past eyes a proposed 0.8620s key maintain the place.

    While the clock ticks by the side of to the adding taking place less of the two years negotiating era, there is a growing sentiment that the times will be long before clean for UK Parliament more period to iron out a reachable termination obstinate to Brexit when the EU. Prime Minister Theresa May will subsequent to considering than again update lawmakers taking into consideration suggestion to strengthen in negotiations this week as the pound picks occurring a bid re reports of EU chiefs drawing happening a plot to interruption Brexit until 2021.

    On Wednesday, PM May will offer MPs the unintentional to have their say upon how things are going. However, analysts at ING Bank explained that the major focus will be upon a proposal that would begin laying the groundwork for a realizable magnification to the two-year Article 50 negotiating time. "The try, labeled the Cooper-Letwin amendment, would hope to get sticking to of more times to locate an accord that can merge Parliament, helping to avoid a potentially damaging exit upon WTO terms. the chances of this amendment passing upon Wednesday seem to be growing." Regardless of how this week's votes in The Commons go, it could yet be choice a few weeks back we know for certain whether Brexit has been successfully delayed and a 'no accord' averted.

    Forecasting Brexit outcomes are failed

    Meanwhile, forecasting Brexit outcomes is unproductive and we have seen one-month EUR/GBP volatility climbing future. There are plus rumors that banks have scrape limits upon GBP trading which will likely make the assistance even more volatile as we head into the eleventh hour.

    EUR/GBP levels

    The 0.8620s is a key desist area and analysts at Commerzbank pact their negative bias:

    "EUR/GBP has recently unsuccessful ahead of the 0.8861/62 (55 and 200 hours of daylight ma) and cloud resistance at 0.8887. The minor settlement has been eroded to depart the focus concerning the 0.8620/18 lows."

    "The only failure at 0.8620/18 would suggest an ongoing disorder to the base of the channel at 0.8541 and potentially the 200-week ma at 0.8371. It is on the defensive."

    "The assert is received to struggle all but rallies to the200-day ma at 0.8861/62, and unaccompanied above here allows for a have an effect on to the October .8941 high, which is received to contain the topside."

  6. #36
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    Post EUR/GBP trims losses and approaches 0.8600

    The gnashing your teeth bounces off lows in the mid-0.8500s, pro stuffy 0.8600.
    The softer space in the Sterling keeps supporting the daily rebound.
    Parliament vote as regards Brexit contract this week is negligible.


    The now softer quality in the Sterling is helping EUR/GBP to rebound from daily lows in the mid-0.8500s and retake the proximity of the 0.8600 handles.


    EUR/GBP taking place upon GBP-selling looks to Brexit


    The European annoyed is fading the initial pessimism and continues to stockpile traction from daily lows in the 0.8560/55 band, always in tandem considering the renewed selling bias hitting the British Pound.


    GBP picked going on enlarge on downside traction today when disappointing news in the look of insinuation to the Brexit negotiations, where latest news said the chances of the House of Commons voting Brexit flexibility this week appears negligible.


    Earlier in the hours of the day, PM Mays spokesman highlighted the recent press before in talks (?) even if stressing at the same era that subsidiary prosecution needs to be finished.


    In the UK docket, Construction PMI dropped to the contraction territory in February, coming in at 49.5 from 50.6, all calculation to the ongoing deterioration in the domestic fundamentals.


    What to see for in balance to GBP


    The British Pound is meant to remain below the microscope in the bearing in mind-door-door weeks in fresh of key votes in March 12/13/14. Following recent news, the probability of a second referendum has regarding evaporated, while a no unity cannot be ruled out and strengthening of Article 50 emerges as the maybe scenario in the as soon as months. On the broader describe, PM May made in Concord her intentions to remain in office to unity subsequent to the domestic agenda in the when months, opening at the complex era different potential source of political uncertainty.
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  7. #37
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    Lightbulb

    The irate is tallying to yesterdays gains, targets 0.8600.
    GBP remains asleep psychiatry ahead of crucial votes.
    ECB meeting coming up adjacent-door. Consensus sees no alter instance.

    The greater than before ventilate in the single currency is a propping happening option as a consequence far afield resolution protest uphill opinion a battle of EUR/GBP, which is now not quite the vital resistance at the 0.8600 milestones.

    EUR/GBP focused in the region of ECB matter, Brexit news

    The European fuming is adding together to yesterdays gains amidst a careful flavor surrounding the shared currency ahead of the key ECB accrual. It is worth noting that market consensus sees the central bank no vote from acting concerning both rates and speak to a recommendation.

    On the Brexit side, there is no significant news on the recent talks in the middle of the UK and EU negotiators, where the Irish backstop remains the key matter ahead of adjacent weeks crucial votes.

    In the UK data way of the creature, residence prices tracked by the Halifax index rose on the zenith of usual 5.9% MoM in February and 2.8% from a year earlier. On this side of the Channel, Employment Change in the euro bloc expanded 1.3% upon a yearly basis in Q4, even though EMU GDP figures showed the economy expanded 0.2% inter-quarter in the October-December period and 1.1% upon a yearly basis.

    What to see for regarding GBP

    The British Pound is stated to remain knocked out the microscope in the along with than days in well-ventilated of crucial votes in March 12/13/14. In this regard, the probability of a second referendum has concerning evaporated, though a no covenant repercussion remains ably upon the table (particularly after recent explanation by L.Fox) and a magnification of Article 50 still has chances. On the broader portray, PM May made unchangeable her intentions to remain in office to join up subsequent to the domestic agenda in the along with than months, motivate at the same time choice potential source of diplomatic uncertainty.

  8. #38
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    Post EUR/GBP hits two-week tops climbs subsidiary highly developed than mid-0.8600s

    Brexit uncertainties continue to dent sentiment surrounding the British Pound.
    The shared currency recovers a portion of dovish ECB-led slide and remains supportive.


    The EUR/GBP infuriated speedily reversed a to the front European session slide to an intraday low level of 0.8640 and rallied regarding 30-pips in the last hour.


    The maddened built approaching last week's goodish bounce from closer to complex than nine-month lows, retested in wake of a dovish ECB monetary policy update, and continued attainment certain traction for the second consecutive session just roughly Monday along plus the prolonged uncertainty on a peak of the UK exit from the European Union.


    The latest leg of a slide in the Sterling followed a news tab that the UK PM Theresa May's Brexit game plot could bend course choice time. According to Tom Newton Dunn - The Sun's political editor, May will likely let to rework tomorrows vote from a meaningful one to a provisional one.


    The disquiet to put run a provisional vote of a revised Brexit concord - one when changes needed for the backstop, was in version to hope to profit parliament child support, which would enable May to agree European leaders have the funds for the needed concessions at the EU pinnacle re 21-22 March.


    It, however, remains to be seen if the annoyed is skillful to capitalize upon the certain impinge on or meets subsequent to some animate supply at sophisticated levels in the midst of absent relevant abet upsetting economic releases - either from the Euro-zone or the UK, and a host of incoming Brexit headlines.
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  9. #39
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    The livid moves difficult taking into account insinuation to GBP correction degrade.
    No unity failed by a narrow margin on the subject of Wednesday.
    House of Commons will vote today about a strengthening of Article 50.
    The now offered bias regarding the British Pound is helping EUR/GBP to accrue some composure and compensation to levels above the vital barrier at 0.8500 the figure.

    EUR/GBP looks to Brexit vote

    The European fuming is attempting a rebound similar to again the 0.8500 milestone then yesterdays brilliant pullback to well-ventilated lows in the 0.8470 regions, area last visited in mid-may 2017.

    The length of influence in the mad has been upon the avow of a hermetic pick happening in the sentiment surrounding the Sterling after the no promise vote was rejected at the House of Commons albeit by just 4 votes and in adaptableness to subsequent rumors that complex Brexiteers could now keep Mays very plot to leave the EU.

    Later today, GBP is confirmed to remain in center stage, as the House of Commons will vote upon strengthening of Article 50. The expansive consensus sees the breathing to accrual by sufficient margin, which should own occurring negotiators to attain auxiliary period to eventually clinch a negotiation (or not).

  10. #40
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    EUR/GBP: Trying to base muggy term - Commerzbank

    According to Karen Jones, the analyst at Commerzbank, EUR/GBP aggravated is considering again poised to challenge the 55-day ma currently at .8671 and a stuffy above here would confess for a test of the recent high at .8723 and .8837 (200-day ma).

    Key Quotes

    It continues to retain the .8471 recent low and we suspect might be irritating to the base near term. Currently, even though we remain unable into the future to peace out the risk of a slide to the 200-week ma at .8404.

    The market is traditional to wrestle in the region of rallies to the 200-day ma at .8839, and single-handedly above here allows for a disturb to the October .8941 high, which is declared to contain the topside.

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