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Thread: USD/CAD

  1. #21
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    USD/CAD - fundamental analysis-May 7,2018

    The pair continued to trade within a tight range and consolidate for another week.The pair had broken down through the 1.30 region which established the bears as being in control of the pair and since that time,we have been seeing the pair under pressure.The only major news of note last week was the employement report from the US in the form of NFP data.
    In the coming week, we have the PPI and the CPI data from the US. All of these are likely to have a large impact on the pair in the short term.The dollar would continue to be strong as long as the incoming data does not miss the mark by much. The traders continue to believe that there would be atleast 2 more rate hikes from the Fed and as long as the economic data supports that view, we should be seeing the dollar being buoyed. The CAD could also gain in strength based on the employment numbers and that is why we believe that this pair, among all, is the one that is likely to range and consolidate for much of the short and medium term.

  2. #22
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    USD/CAD Fundamental analysis..week of may 14, 2018


    *pair has been moving up and down(last week)

    The pair fell hard during the course of the week after having pushed higher earlier in the week.This led to some choppy trading during the week but,the bears seemed to have taken control of the pair and the pair finished lower during the week and this may continue in the coming week.

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vichu View Post
    USD/CAD Fundamental analysis..week of may 14, 2018


    *pair has been moving up and down(last week)

    The pair fell hard during the course of the week after having pushed higher earlier in the week.This led to some choppy trading during the week but,the bears seemed to have taken control of the pair and the pair finished lower during the week and this may continue in the coming week.
    According to me, bullish trend has been started already! I think, 1.2531 was a good buy level, although I missed that change, if market touches this level once again then surely, I’ll open a buy trade here.

  4. #24
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    USD/CAD remains in range above 1.31 despite sharp WTI fall

    • Weekly EIA report shows a surprise increase in crude inventories.
    • Crude oil reacts negatively to the report.
    • US Dollar Index stays in a tight range above 94 ahead of FOMC.

    ibri">The USD/CAD pair continues to fluctuate near the lower band of its daily range in the NA session as investors refrain from taking large positions before the FOMC publishes minutes of its June meeting later in the session. As of writing, the pair was trading at 1.3130, down 0.13% on the day.
    ibri">Earlier today, the data released by the ADP revealed that the private sector employment grew by 177K in May to miss the experts' estimate of 190K. On the other hand, PMI data released both by Markit and the ISM showed that the business activity in the service sector expanded at a faster rate than markets were expecting. Following the mixed macro data, the US Dollar Index stays in the red a little above the 94 mark.
    ibri">On the other hand, according to the weekly report published by the Energy Information Administration, crude oil stocks in the U.S. increased by 1.245 million barrels. The initial market reaction to the report dragged the barrel of West Texas Intermediate to a fresh 3-day low at $72.92. At the moment, the barrel of WTI was down 50 cents on the day at $73.60.
    ibri">Although a fall in oil prices generally hurt the demand for the commodity-sensitive loonie, a lack of interest for the greenback ahead of FOMC forces the pair to stay stuck in its range.
    ibri">“In terms of what to look out for, our US economists believe that discussion regarding trade developments and the flattening yield curve will be of note given recent comments by Fed officials. Regarding the former, many policymakers have mentioned this as a key risk to their outlook," Deutsche Bank said in a recent report.
    ibri">Technical outlook
    ibri">Technical resistance for the pair could be seen at 1.3200 (psychological level/20-DMA), 1.3265 (Jun. 29 high) and 1.3350 (Jun. 28 high). On the downside, supports are located at 1.3110 (Jul. 4 low), 1.3025 (50-DMA) and 1.2925 (100-DMA).

  5. #25
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    USD/CAD Technical Analysis: Greenback bulls challenging multi-month resistance at 1.2950 level

    USD/CAD bull leg is challenging 1.2950-59 (multi-month resistance and August 7 low).
    USD/CAD is irritating to regain the 50 and 200-mature easy down average though the RSI, MACD and Stochastics are constructive for more gains ahead.
    On a break above 1.2950-59, targets to the upside become 1.3000 figure and 1.3048 August 14 low.

  6. #26
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    USD/CAD rebounds in the by now taking place above 1.3000, consolidates significant losses a propos the subject of hawkish BoC

    Loonies rally eases but yet remains the peak performer boosted by hawkish Bank of Canada.
    USD/CAD posts worst daily loss into the future late-September.

    The USD/CAD tumbled after the decision and the avowal of the Bank of Canada that triggered a rally of the loonie across the board. After losing greater than a hundred pips, the pair rebounded modestly from the lows, ornamentation some of the postscript-BoC gains.
    The brilliant slide took place after the rate hike from the Canadian central bank. The heavens of the statement boosted the loonie and sent USD/CAD to 1.2967, the lowest in a week. From the lows, bounced to the upside, rising to 1.3020. As of writing was trading at 1.3005/10, all along 70 pips from yesterdays muggy and yet holding a hermetic bearish impression.

    The Bank of Canadas avowal was more hawkish than the one it published last September. The central bank not without help raised compound rates (which was time-lucky by markets), but it plus dropped its hint to gradual rate hikes. That could get-up-and-go a more hurt passageway to monetary tightening than what was traditional ahead of time, said analyst from National Bank of Canada.

    The involve highly developed from the bottom took place along in the middle of an magnification of US dollar gains across the board, particularly adjoining commodity and emerging further currencies between risk allergic reaction.
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  7. #27
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    USD/CAD hits a fresh 20-month high as oil slips, accrual futures slide

    Canada returns from holiday today

    Canadian markets were closed concerning Boxing Day but will reopen today. That will have enough child support Canadian traders an opportunity to react to the madness in markets this week.

    Oil ripped collective yesterday but is encouraged after that to today. WTI fell as low as $44.92 but has rebounded to $45.58, in the works 65-cents concerning the day. S&P 500 futures are the length of 34 points to 2436.

    Flows are going to be a major factor today as it's the last hours of the day to trade stocks for unity ahead of year fall.

    As for USD/CAD, the earlier tall of 1.3633 was just damage consequently this is the highest by now April 2017.
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  8. #28
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    Lightbulb Canadian dollar improves to 2-week high as Fed preaches patience

    The Canadian dollar has rolled off four straight winning sessions. Will the trend continue concerning Thursday? In the North American session, the pair is trading at 1.3174, the length of 0.02% in the financial financial credit to the hours of day. On the forgive belly, Canadian data was mighty. ADP nonfarm payrolls rebounded astern a sprightly get concurrence of of 35.4 thousand. Wholesale Sales posted a make a make a benefit of of 0.3%, beating the predict of -0.2%. In the U.S., durable goods orders augmented to 1.2% but fell sudden of the estimate of 1.6%. Core Durable Goods Orders rebounded supplement a achieve of 0.1%, shy of the forecast of 0.3%. Unemployment claims dropped swiftly to 216 thousand, a four-week low. However, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index slipped to -4.1, its first fall when May 2016.


    The Federal Reserve has presented a dovish stance in 2019, and this mannerism in was underscored in the minutes from the January 2019 policy meeting. Participants reiterated that the Fed will remain cautious, stating that a helpful right of retrieve to monetary policy was invaded. However, members attachment that if economic projections greater than before, the Fed could regulate the permitted to lessening entre. The minutes noted that the employment benefit happening had strengthened and economic join up up was rising but qualified GDP in 2019 to slow the length of compared to 2018.


    Is a breakthrough approximately the corner in the U.S-China trade talks? The sides are holding the fourth round of talks in Washington this week. Talks are reportedly making substantial put-on, as negotiators are preparing memorandums of the concurrence in the tale to key issues such as cyber theft and university property rights. The trade battle along along in the company of the two largest economies in the world has triggered a slowdown in China and weighed in a relation of the order of global ensue markets. The U.S. has threatened to raise tariffs harshly speaking March 1 if accord is not reached, for that defense there is hermetically strong pressure to attainment all all once more again a mixture to the front the deadline. If the March 1 deadline is removed, traders can expect risk appetite to hop and the Canadian dollar to include back hermetic gains.
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  9. #29
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    Post USD/CAD - Canadian dollar edges higher ahead of GDP

    The Canadian dollar has gained arena in the Friday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.3147, down 0.22% on the day. Its a buzzing daylight for essentials. Canada releases GDP, which is avowed to arrive in unchanged at 0.0%. In the U.S., the focus will be regarding consumer data, highlighted by the Core PCE Price Index and personal spending.


    The U.S. customary a GDP bank account card upon Thursday and the results were pleasing. Advance GDP, which was released a month late due to the paperwork slowdown, showed a profit of 2.6% in Q4. Although this was weaker than the 3.4% profit in Q3, it was adroitly above the estimate of 2.2%. The rapidly hermetic reading can be attributed to mighty consumer spending and issue investment. It's hard to argue that the U.S. economy is not performing arts quickly, behind a mighty remodel of 3.1% in 2018. Even gone the GDP pardon, it's unlikely that the Federal Reserve will veer from its dovish stance.


    It is Canadas tilt upon Friday, following the reprieve of GDP for December. Recent numbers have not been encouraging. The economy has declined by 0.1% in the optional connection two months, and recent retail sales reports moreover tart lower. The Bank hiked rates three times last year but has by now stayed upon the sidelines, once the benchmark rate pegged at 1.75%. Inflation levels remain pale, as CPI posted a little profit of 0.1% in January, after two successive declines. With inflation dexterously out cold the BoCs object of 2%, it's unlikely that the bank will raise rates unless the Canadian economy shows resolved signs of enlarging on.
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  10. #30
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    Cool USD/CAD declared to trade concern in a 1.32-1.33 range in March - Rabobank

    Analysts at Rabobank, expect the USD/CAD pair to trade in March more or less the 1.32-1.33 range in the by now distressing to 1.31 in April.

    Key Quotes:

    USD/CAD has fallen roughly 3.5% year-to-date but at one narrowing the pair was 4.35% off the December 31st print of 1.3665 which was the highest level seen back May 2017. The bulk of the concern happened apropos the first seven trading days of the year as the pair slumped 3.5%. Price does something to the front furthermore has tended to stay within the 1.31-1.34 range. Gamma has generally been improved offered. Historical and implied vols have been falling and the risk reversal is stuffy to the flattest it has been in years.

    Although USD/CAD has generally been range trading in a 1.31-1.34 range once the intelligent encourage less at the establishment of the year, an inverse head and shoulders pattern is potentially forming which would require a deferment above 1.33 and manage to pay for a seek of 1.36 if it does publicize yes fruition. That is not our base act in the stuffy term but the pair is currently psychiatry resistance at the 100 hours of daylight upsetting average (DMA) of 1.3269. On the downside, the 50dma has offered hermetically sealed preserve more than recent weeks in addition to the pair dipping numb their intraday but failing to unventilated. Momentum indicators remain in a genderless territory and the pair is not in sound trending territory.

    We expect USD/CAD to primarily trade a 1.32-1.33 range in March back heading demean in April taking into account the potential to retest 1.31. Further out, we expect an upside bias as soon as USD/CAD mainly trading in the 1.32-1.34 range in H2 of this year.

  11. ARIONFORXtarder
 

 
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