USD

[mirza ally]

Dollar edges lower as focus turns to U.S. jobs report.

The dollar edged lower on Tuesday as investors turned their attention to the upcoming U.S. jobs report for July, which could reinforce expectations for higher interest rates.

EUR/USD inched up 0.12% to 1.0963 from 1.0949 late Monday.

The dollar has been boosted by expectations that the improving U.S. economy will prompt the Federal Reserve to raise short term interest rates in the coming months, possibly as early as September.

Investors were looking to the government nonfarm payrolls report, due to be released on Friday. The consensus forecast is that the report will show jobs growth of 215,000 last month.

Monthly jobs gains above 200,000 are seen by economists as consistent with strong employment growth.

The dollar softened following the release of disappointing U.S. economic reports on Monday.

Official data showed that U.S consumer spending slowed in June and a separate report showing that manufacturing activity moderated in July.

Another report showed that U.S. construction spending rose at the slowest rate in five months in June.

The U.S.dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, slid 0.17% to 97.43.

[mirza ally]

Dollar buoyed by U.S. housing data, Fed ahead.

The dollar was higher against a basket of major currencies on Tuesday, after data showing that U.S. housing starts rose to an almost eight-year high in July, while the pound was boosted by expectations for higher interest rates.

The commerce Department reported that housing starts rose 0.2% to an annual pace of 1.21 million units, the highest level since October 2007.

It was the fourth straight month that housing starts remained above a one million-unit rate.

Building permits fell 16.3% in July, but that was after three consecutive months of strong gains.

The encouraging data came as investors were looking ahead to Wednesday’s minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting, which it was hoped would provide more clarity on its plans to hike short-term interest rates for the first time since 2006.

The euro fell to session lows, with Euro/USD down 0.36% to 1.1034.

The US Dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major rivals, rose to 96.98 from around 96.82 ahead of the data.

USD/JPY was at 124.40, off lows of 124.19, while USD/CHF was at 0.9774.

The dollar edged lower against the safe haven yen and the Swiss franc earlier Tuesday after a steep drop in Chinese stocks fanned fears that Beijing could still let the yuan fall further after last week’s devaluation.

The pound remained close to seven-week highs after an uptick in UK inflation added to pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates.

The greenback was little changed against the Canadian dollar, with USD/CAD at 1.3076.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars fell to session lows of 0.7328 and 0.6589 respectively.

The Aussie fell to six-year lows of 0.7214 last week after the yuan depreciation before recovering after China's central bank said there was no basis for further depreciation in the currency.

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Mirza
PCM Brokers

[mirza ally]

Dollar pushes higher as Asia concerns ease


The dollar pushed higher against the other major currencies on Wednesday, despite the release of disappointing economic reports from the U.S as concern over china's economic outlook began to ease.
Payroll processing firm ADP said non-farm private employment rose by 190,000 last month, below expectations for an increase of 201,000. The economy created 177,000 jobs in July, whose figure was downward revised from a previously reported increase of 185,000.

Data also showed that U.S. factory orders increased by 0.4% in July, missing forecasts for a gain of 0.9%.

USD/JPY climbed 0.62% to trade at 120.08, after rising to highs of 120.46 earlier.

The dollar gained ground higher after the Nikkei rose in early trade, dampening demand for the Japanese currency.

The dollar was also higher against the euro, with EUR/USD down 0.69% at 1.1238.

The worsening outlook for equities has underpinned demand for the low yielding euro and yen in recent sessions.

The dollar was steady against the pound, with GBP/USD at 1.5305 and extended gains against the Swiss franc, with USDCHF rallying 1.16% to 0.9693.

The Australian dollar was steady, with AUDUSD at 0.7020, while NZD/USD gained 0.49% to 0.6358.

Meanwhile, USD/CAD edged up 0.14% to trade at 1.3279.




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Mirza
PCM Brokers

[mirza ally]

Dollar holds gains, U.S. rate hike speculation supports.


The dollar held gains against the other major currencies on Friday, after positive U.S. employment data and Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker added to expectations for a near-term U.S. rate hike.

The Labor Department said the U.S economy added 173.000 jobs in August, disappointing expectations for an increase of 220.000. The number of jobs created rose by 245.000 in July, whose figure was revised from a previously estimated gain of 215.000.

The report also showed that the U.S. unemployment Rate fell to 5.1% last month from 5.3% in July, compared to expectation for a downtick to 5.2% in August. It was the lowest level of U.S. unemployment since April 2008.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was up 0.23% at 96.54, off session lows of 95.87.

The dollar was still lower against the yen, with USD/JPY down 0.63% to 119.32.

The Australian dollar and New Zealand dollars pushed lower, with AUD/USD down 1.04% at 0.6945 and with NZD/USD tumbling 1.23% to 0.6319.

Canada's unemployment rate rose to 7.0% last month from 6.8% in July. Analysts had expected the unemployment rate to remain unchanged in August.





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Mirza
PCM Brokers

[mirza ally]

Fed to dominate week of the central bank meeting

The U.S. Federal Reserve takes center stage in the coming week, eclipsing industry data from China, another grim inflation reading from the euro zone and rate decisions in Japan and Switzerland.

Guessing whether the Fed hikes rates on Thursday or opts for a later date, perhaps December, is something of a futile exercise because even the rate setters appear to be wavering and the decision will probably come down to the wire.

An unexpected drop in the jobless rate to 5.1 percent and an upward revision in second quarter growth to 3.7 percent support calls for a hike as the labor market tightens and utilization is at its best level since the global financial crisis.

Yet, futures only price a 24 percent chance of a hike as emerging markets, particularly China, struggle, inflation remains benign and some notable Fed watchers, argue against a hike.

"Investors guess is that the committee is also confused about what the right decision is, and as a result they are waiting to the last minute with making a decision,"

In Europe, the key item will be final August euro zone inflation data due on Wednesday, likely supplying another arguments for the European Central Bank to beef up quantitative easing.

Price growth is seen holding steady at 0.2 percent, far off the ECB's target of just under 2 percent and ECB President Mario Draghi has already warned that the euro zone could dip back into deflation on lower commodity prices and weaker growth from emerging markets.

The big inflation miss and a modification of quantitative easing are just the latest in a long list of troubles for central banks around the globe as developed nations struggle with weak growth and anemic inflation.




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Mirza
PCM Brokers

[Yousuf Ali]

Analyst explained that the FOMC September decision forecasts will hike the target range for the Fed Funds rate by 25bp.

Along with a hike, the forecast and language may be used to reinforce an extremely slow pace of tightening and a purely data – dependent outlook for the Fed funds rate. A result in line with expectations would support the USD. Monetary policy divergence remains a theme, even as all central banks feel the global dovish pressure of softening EM growth.

While the FOMC meeting understandably is the key event in the US, August housing starts and the Philadelphia Fed index for September are released in the US as well.

[mirza ally]

Dollar slips lower before Federal Reserve decision.

The dollar slid lower against the other major currencies on Thursday, as investors waited to see whether the Federal Reserve would raise short-term interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade.

EUR/USD was last up 0.16% to 1.1310 from 1.1288 late Wednesday.

The dollar remained under pressure ahead of the conclusion of the Fed policy setting meeting later in the day amid uncertainty over whether the central bank would end its policy of holding interest rates close to zero.

An increase in interest rates would boost the greenback by making it more attractive to yield-seeking investors.

Earlier Thursday U.S. data showed that the number of people who filed for unemployment assistance fell to a two-month low last week, remaining in territory consistent with a strengthening labor market.

The Labor Department said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits fell by 11,000 to 264,000 from the previous week’s total of 275,000.

The reports came one day after data showing that U.S. inflation unexpectedly fell for the first time in seven months in August tempered expectations for a rate hike.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen has said that an interest rate increase is data dependent but has also indicated that she expects to begin raising rates before the end of the year.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was down 0.16% to 95.37.




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Mirza
PCM Brokers

[mirza ally]

5 key economic Event to watch this week 12-16 Oct

In the week ahead, investors will be looking to Wednesday’s U.S. data on retail sales and Thursday’s report on consumer prices for fresh indications on the strength of consumer spending.

Elsewhere, Tuesday’s ZEW report on German business sentiment and the latest U.K. employment report will be closely watched.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

1. U.S. retail sales report
U.S. retail sales have not fallen six straight months, in a positive sign for the economy, where consumer spending accounts for roughly 70% of economic output.
Wednesday’s report is expected to show that retail sales ticked up 0.2% in September from a month earlier as lower gasoline prices continue to boost spending momentum.

2. U.S. CPI
The U.S. is to publish data on the consumer price index on Thursday and the consensus forecast is for consumer prices to show a decline of 0.2%.
U.S. consumer prices unexpectedly fell in August as gasoline prices fell and the stronger dollar weighed on prices. The tame inflation outlook has complicated the Federal Reserve’s decision on when to start hiking interest rates.

3. German ZEW
Germany is to release data on economic sentiment on Tuesday, amid concerns over the outlook for the euro area’s largest economy.
The ZEW economic expectations index for September showed a drop to 12.1 from 25.0 in August as a slowdown in emerging market economies weighed.
The report is expected to show that Germans are increasingly pessimistic on the economic outlook, with the index expected to decline again to 6.0.

4. U.K. jobs report
The Office for National Statistics is release the latest UK employment report on Wednesday.
The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5.5% and wage growth is expected to continue to climb, with pay excluding bonuses forecast to rise 3.1% after a 2.9% increase in July.
Robust pay growth has boosted expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of England.

5. U.S. consumer sentiment
The University of Michigan is to publish the preliminary reading of its consumer sentiment index on Friday, with a consensus forecast for an uptick to 88.7 from an upwardly revised 87.2 in September.
Last month the report showed that U.S. consumer sentiment deteriorated as concerns over the global slowdown and uncertainty over future jobs growth weighed.




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Mirza
PCM Brokers

[mirza ally]

Dollar remains higher on U.S optimism.

The dollar remained broadly higher against the other major currencies on Thursday, easing off a two-and-a-half month trough as the release of upbeat U.S. data fueled optimism over the health of the economy.

USD/JPY was down 0.25% at 118.54, off a more than one-month low of 118.06 hit earlier in the session.

The U.S. Department of Labor reported on Thursday that the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending October 10 decreased by 7,000 to 255,000 from the previous week’s total of 262,000.

Analysts had expected jobless claims to rise by 8,000 to 270,000.

Separately, the U.S. Commerce Department said that consumer prices fell 0.2% last month, matching forecasts and following a fall of 0.1% in August.

Year-over-year, consumer prices were flat in September, compared to expectations for a 0.1% slip.

Core consumer prices which exclude food and energy costs, increased by 0.2%, above expectations for a gain of 0.1%.

In addition, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said that its general business conditions index improved to -11.4 this month from a reading of -14.7 in September. Analysts had expected the index to rise to -8.0 in October.

EUR/USD declined 0.84% to 1.1377, pulling away from a 1-1/2 month peak of 1.1495 hit overnight.

Elsewhere, the dollar was higher against the pound and the Swiss franc, with GBP/USD down 0.16% at 1.5452 and with USD/CHF gaining 0.39% to 0.9533.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars were stronger, with AUD/USD up 0.16% at 0.7312 and with NZD/USD rallying 0.98% to three-and-a-half month highs of 0.6857.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on Thursday that the number of employed people declined by 5,100 in September, compared to expectations for an increase of 5,000.

Australia's unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.2% last month, confounding expectations for an uptick to 6.3%.

Separately, the Melbourne Institute said its inflation expectations for the next 12 months rose to 3.5% in September, from 3.2% the previous month.

Meanwhile, USD/CAD slid 0.31% to two-month lows of 1.2894.




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Mirza
PCM Brokers

[Yousuf Ali]

The main focus of today’s session will be on US monetary policy as Fed’s Dudley (voter, dovish), Powel (voter, neutral) and Fed Chair Yellen will speak this afternoon (CET).

Also in the US, data for housing starts and building permits for September will attract some attention. The rise in building permits in August is expected to be reflected in an increase in starts in September, while permits are expected to fall back slightly.

The overall picture is of a housing market continuing to benefit from a favorable mix of low interest rates and positive real income growth. Homebuilding activity is also still below the long-term trend, which points to further improvements in the housing market. Yesterday’s US NAHB housing market index release supports this view.