Markets wait for Fed Rate Decision- July 29th, amidst a commodity melt down

[Raam]

FULL CIRCLE: Markets wait for Fed Rate Decision- July 29th, amidst a commodity melt down

QUOTE: - Life is ten percent what happens to you and ninety percent how you respond to it

MARKET PULSE Forecast: U.S. unemployment declined, while orders for durable goods rose US Housing Recovery in Full Swing as Sales at Eight-Year High U.S. futures contracts: 40 % likelihood that the Fed will hike Sep and a 74 % in Dec The Fed announces its policy decision on July 29. Greek parliament voted through a second package of creditors' demands PM Tsipras urged lawmakers to stop the country being forced out of the EU New Zealand's Central Bank cut its interest rateby 25 bp to 3% Events: Today: U.K. retail sales, Euro-zone consumer confidence Finns told pay cuts now only way to rescue economy from Ukraine debt payment tests talks progress as market bets on deal BOE's Haldane plays the contrarian to Carney in U.K. rate debate CAD closes at lowest level in a decade as oil falls U.S. Treasuries mixed, with 10-year yield steady at 2.322% Bloomberg commodities Index sank to a 13-year low Morgan Stanley: worst-case scenario bullion may tumble to $800 an ounce Morgan Stanley': Average Gold Price 2015 forecast is $1,190. Gold last traded below $800 in 2008 Gold holdings in ETFs shrank 4.8 MT to 1,560.7 MT 5th day of declines WTI crude oil down 3.3% to $49.19/bbl Copper down 1.9% to $2.428/lb INDIAN INR MARKETS INR drops 0.1% to 63.6550 per USD 1-month implied volatility rises 1 bp at 5.0500%; avg for past 12 months. is 6.6888% INR 1-month forwards fall 0.1% to 63.93 per USD USD/INR Pivot point at 63.5717; USD/INR support at 63.5234, 63.4667 and 63.3617 USD/INR resistance broken at 63.6284, next at 63.6767 and 63.7817 USD/INR remains below 50-DMA of 63.7021 FACTORS Global investors sold net $25m of Indian stocks on July 21 India's leading stock index Sensex down 0.1% CapEcon : Expect another 25 bps of cuts with repo rate at 7% at end-2015 FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS USD held gains , the dollar Index rose to almost a 4-month high USD Spot Index was at 1,206.27 from 1,207.85 (March 19 high set on Monday) USD/JPY +0.02% at 123.99 (range 123.92-124.15) EUR/USD +0.15% at 1.0945 (range 1.0922-1.0956) AUD/USD -0.03% at 0.7379 (range 0.7357-0.7393) NZD/USD +0.90% at 0.6631 (range 0.6570-0.6653) USD/CAD +0.02% at 1.3036 (range 1.3025-1.3048) GBP/USD +0.03% at 1.5618 (range 1.5604-1.5625) USD/CHF -0.10% at 0.9590 (range 0.9583-0.9603) FACTORS Forecast: U.S. unemployment declined, while orders for durable goods rose US Housing Recovery in Full Swing as Sales at Eight-Year High U.S. futures contracts: 40 % likelihood that the Fed will hike Sep and a 74 % in Dec The Fed announces its policy decision on July 29. Greek parliament voted through a second package of creditors' demands PM Tsipras urged lawmakers to stop the country being forced out of the EU New Zealand's Central Bank cut its interest rateby 25 bp to 3% Events: Today: U.K. retail sales, Euro-zone consumer confidence Finns told pay cuts now only way to rescue economy from Ukraine debt payment tests talks progress as market bets on deal BOE's Haldane plays the contrarian to Carney in U.K. rate debate CAD closes at lowest level in a decade as oil falls U.S. Treasuries mixed, with 10-year yield steady at 2.322% GOLD MARKETS Gold spot sank to $1,086.18 on Monday, the lowest level since March 2010 Gold spot advanced 0.5 % to $1,099.77 and traded at $1,098.90 in Asian hours Gold's 14-day RSI has been below 30 all this week signaling a rebound Gold Futures for August rose 0.5 % to $1,096.90, snapping a 10-day losing run China: Gold rose as much as 0.7 % to 220.5 yuan a gram ($1,104.51/ounce) on SGE Silver spot rose 0.4 % to $14.8622 an ounce FACTORS Bloomberg commodities Index sank to a 13-year low Morgan Stanley: worst-case scenario bullion may tumble to $800 an ounce Morgan Stanley': Average Gold Price 2015 forecast is $1,190. Gold last traded below $800 in 2008 Gold holdings in ETFs shrank 4.8 MT to 1,560.7 MT 5th day of declines WTI crude oil down 3.3% to $49.19/bbl Copper down 1.9% to $2.428/lb