DEVALUATION WARS : Emerging Markets Currencies longest decline since 2000

QUOTE: All change is not growth, as all movement is not forward.
MARKET PULSE

  • US- weaker-than-expected figures on manufacturing but an upside seen on the housing sector.
  • US Empire State Manufacturing index dropped in August to -14.9 from +3.9 in July
  • US Gauge of home-builder confidence rising to its highest level since November 2005
  • USD Spot Index, rose 0.2 % to 1,210.39
  • EU- Trade balance rose to a surplus of 21.9 billion EUR in June
  • Net longs on USD were at 115,210 as of July 20, from as high as 226,560 in June
  • German Finance Minister Schaeuble asked lawmakers to back Greece's 3rd bailout
  • Moody's- G-20 growth won't hit pre-crisis pace anytime soon
  • Emerging-market currencies fell, extending the longest stretch of weekly declines since 2000
  • Turkey's lira touched a record low for a third day
  • Malaysian ringgit weakening to the lowest level since 1998
  • Thailand's baht has fallen for eight straight weeks
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Index retreated 1.1 % to 854.71( Oct 2011 low)
  • Goldman Sacs : Yuan will decline to 6.60 per USD in 12 months
  • Russia's ruble retreated 0.8 % to 65.48 against the USD



INR
MARKETS

  • Indian Markets closed today for Parsi New Year
  • INR drops 0.5% to 65.3125 and fell 65.3750, lowest since Sept. 2013;
  • 1-month implied volatility falls 13 bps at 7.9125%; average for past 12M. is 6.6826%
  • INR 1-month forwards drop 0.3% to 65.72 per USD

FACTORS

  • Global investors added net $70.8m of Indian stocks on Aug.14
  • HSBC: India- If oil remains low, the current account gap will remain manageable
  • HSBC : India BOP surplus, even if capital inflows slow
  • Emerging-market currencies fell, extending the longest stretch of weekly declines since 2000
  • Turkey's lira touched a record low for a third day
  • Malaysian ringgit weakening to the lowest level since 1998
  • Thailand's baht has fallen for eight straight weeks
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Index retreated 1.1 % to 854.71( Oct 2011 low)
  • Goldman Sacs : Yuan will decline to 6.60 per USD in 12 months
  • Russia's ruble retreated 0.8 % to 65.48 against the USD



FOREIGN EXCHANGE
MARKETS

  • EUR trading along the 50- and 100-day trend lines, at $1.1082 and $1.1047
  • USD/JPY +0.06% at 124.46 (range 124.38-124.50)
  • EUR/USD -0.01% at 1.1077 (range 1.1072-1.1082)
  • AUD/USD +0.01% at 0.7373 (range 0.7363-0.7386)
  • USD/CAD +0.11% at 1.3094 (range 1.3079-1.3104)
  • GBP/USD +0.03% at 1.5591 (range 1.5576-1.5597)
  • USD/CHF -0.06% at 0.9782 (range 0.9779-0.9793)

FACTORS

  • US- weaker-than-expected figures on manufacturing but an upside seen on the housing sector.
  • US Empire State Manufacturing index dropped in August to -14.9 from +3.9 in July
  • US Gauge of homebuilder confidence rising to its highest level since November 2005
  • USD Spot Index, rose 0.2 % to 1,210.39
  • EU- Trade balance rose to a surplus of 21.9 billion EUR in June
  • Net longs on USD were at 115,210 as of July 20, from as high as 226,560 in June
  • German Finance Minister Schaeuble asked lawmakers to back Greece's 3rd bailout
  • Moody's- G-20 growth won't hit pre-crisis pace anytime soon
  • Brent crude and copper drop; gold advances



GOLD
MARKETS

  • Gold Spot flat at $1,118.34 in Asia from $1,117.70 on Mon when prices climbed 0.2 %
  • Gold prices rose last week for the first time since June
  • Gold futures Dec. were 0.1 % lower at $1,117.40 after a 0.5 % rise on Mon.
  • Silver for immediate delivery retreated 0.3 % to $15.2935 an ounce.
  • Gold held the first gain in three days

FACTORS

  • Manufacturing gauge in the New York area slumped,
  • Monday- 48 % probability of Fed rate hike Sep vs. 54 % on Aug. 7.
  • Goldcorp Inc., US's largest producer of Gold floated new $2 billion mine named Eleonore
  • Gold ETF are close to their lowest level since 2009