GROWTH ON TRACK: US GDP rose 3.2% in Quarter Two, Fed says Sep hike doubtful

QUOTE: Lead me, follow me, or get out of my way
MARKET PULSE

  • Fed NY President. Dudley-"case for raising interest rates in Sep is less compelling "
  • The U.S. economy grew 3.2 % in Q2 , forecast of 2.3 %
  • EUR is moving in the opposite to Stoxx Europe 600 and S&P500 by the most in a decade
  • The euro rose more than 7 % in a basket of 10 currencies in the last three 3M
  • Fed NY President. Dudley-"case for raising interest rates in Sep is less compelling "
  • The U.S. economy grew 3.2 % in Q2 , forecast of 2.3 %
  • The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of stocks rose for a 2nd day, gaining 1.7 %
  • Today: Spain GDP; ECB's Coeure speaks
  • Tsipras's election gamble risks backfiring as Greeks get jaded
  • Greek banks' senior creditors may prove elusive write-down target
  • Gov. Kuroda-Bank of Japan can still achieve its 2% inflation target
  • U.S. data showed crude inventories unexpectedly shrank
  • Crude stockpiles fell by 5.45 million barrels to 450.8 million last week
  • Production slid to the lowest in more than three months.
  • U.S. oil production avg 9.34 m barrels a day through Aug. 21 (May 15 low)



INR
MARKETS

  • INR rises 0.2% to 66.0013
  • USD/INR pivot point at 66.1942
  • USD/INR support at 66.0121, 65.8804, 65.5666;
  • USD/INR resistance at 66.3259, 66.5080, 66.8218
  • USD/INR 14-day RSI at 69, just below overbought territory
  • 1M implied volatility slips 38 bps to 8.3075%; avg for 12M. is 6.7272%
  • INR 1-month forwards gain 0.3% to 66.38 per USD

FACTORS

  • Global investors sold net $298.7m of Indian stocks on Aug.25
  • India's leading index Sensex was up 1.9% today
  • TD Securities: India remains one of most resilient economies to external shocks


FOREIGN EXCHANGE
MARKETS

  • USD/JPY +0.15% at 120.10 (range 119.82-120.37)
  • EUR/USD +0.28% at 1.1346 (range 1.1311-1.1353)
  • AUD/USD +0.08% at 0.7128 (range 0.7111-0.7153)
  • USD/CAD -0.14% at 1.3274 (range 1.3266-1.3306)
  • GBP/USD +0.23% at 1.5498 (range 1.5461-1.5509)
  • USD/CHF -0.18% at 0.9531 (range 0.9513-0.9550)
  • U.S. Treasuries gain with 10-year yield down 3 bps at 2.149%

FACTORS

  • EUR is moving in the opposite to Stoxx Europe 600 and S&P500 by the most in a decade
  • The euro rose more than 7 % in a basket of 10 currencies in the last three 3M
  • Fed New York President. Dudley-"case for raising interest rates in Sep is less compelling "
  • The U.S. economy grew 3.2 % in Q2 , forecast of 2.3 %
  • The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of stocks rose for a 2nd day, gaining 1.7 %
  • Today: Spain GDP; ECB's Coeure speaks
  • Tsipras's election gamble risks backfiring as Greeks get jaded
  • Greek banks' senior creditors may prove elusive write-down target
  • Gov. Kuroda-Bank of Japan can still achieve its 2% inflation target


CRUDE OIL
MARKETS

  • Brent Oct gained $1.31, or 3 %, to $44.45 a
  • Brent Oct lost 7 cents to $43.14 on Wed
  • Brent crude traded at a premium of $4.67 to WTI
  • WTI Oct up $1.21 to $39.81 at open
  • All futures traded volume was about 95 % above the 100-day average

FACTORS

  • U.S. data showed crude inventories unexpectedly shrank
  • Crude stockpiles fell by 5.45 million barrels to 450.8 million last week
  • Production slid to the lowest in more than three months.
  • U.S. oil production avg 9.34 m barrels a day through Aug. 21 (May 15 low)