Daily Wave Analysis

[Samirofi]

Bullish Momentum Supersedes US Dollar Downtrend

September 21

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD completed a bullish ABC (purple) but stopped and respected the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the wave 2 (green). The quick fall after that could a first indication of wave 3 (green) start but the break of the uptrend channel (green) is needed before a confirmation is seen.


1 hour



The EUR/USD completed 5 waves up (blue) before falling strongly back to the downside. The bearish momentum could either be a wave A or wave 1 but I choose the latter due to the potential completion of wave 2 (green).



GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD too completed 5 waves up (dark green) before falling strongly back to the downside. The GU respected the 78.6% Fibonacci level.


1 hour



Wave C (orange) eventually showed an internal 5 wave within wave 5 (pink). After peaking at the 78.6%, the rapid decent is also a first clue that a bearish wave 1 (orange) or wave A has started.


USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY broke below the support trend line (dotted green) which is an indication of bearish triangle break.


1 hour



The bearish momentum could indicate the potential for a wave 1 (purple) or wave A.

[Samirofi]

EUR/USD and GBP/USD Head Lower in 5 Bearish Waves

September 22, 2015

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD is still in a bullish angled channel (trend lines) but the bearish price action occurred in 5 waves which is most likely part of wave 1 or wave A (both green). A break of the support trend line (green) would confirm the completion of wave 2/B (green) and the start of wave 3/C.




1 hour

The EUR/USD seems to have completed 5 bearish waves (purple). Whether wave 5 (purple) is completed remains to be seen but a pullback for a wave 2 (brown) remains possible later on as well.





GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD seems to have completed 5 bearish waves which completed a wave 1 or A (green). The bullish reaction has been in 3 distinct waves so far which is marked as an ABC (orange).





1 hour

The bearish turn at the top could have concluded wave 2/B (green) and the current fall looks to be in 5 waves (pink). A breakout below the support (green) trend line increases the chances of a wave 3 (orange) or C starting.




USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY count has been changed to reflect the triangle ABCDE (purple) character of the current chart pattern.




1 hour

The current ABC formation (blue) could signal the completion of the triangle (wave E purple).

[Samirofi]

EUR/USD’s Wave X, GBP/USD’s Wave 4, USD/JPY’s Wave B

December 21, 2015 04:48

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD seems to be in a larger correction (WXY). A move lower seems unlikely to break the Fibonacci levels of wave X (green).


1 hour



The EUR/USD bullish bounce has so far been slow. If price breaks below support (green), it could fall towards the next 61.8% or 78.6% Fib. If price breaks above resistance (orange), it could rise towards the next resistance (red).


GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD seems to be in sideways wave 4 (blue). A bearish break could see price fall towards the bottom of the downtrend channel.


1 hour



The GBP/USD seems to be building a bear flag chart pattern correction for a wave 4 (blue). A break below the support (green) could signal the end of wave 4 (blue) and start of wave 5 (blue).


USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY has strong support and resistance zones nearby. Price is clearly in a sideways zone and lacking the presence of a trend.


1 hour



Price is showing strong bearish momentum which broke below support (dotted green). The momentum is most likely part of a wave A (blue).

[Samirofi]

USD Marked by Critical S&R Trend Lines

December 22, 2015 05:20

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD bounced substantially at the 50% Fibonacci level and could retest the resistance level (red). A bigger bearish correction could still see support at the Fibonacci level.




1 hour

The EUR/USD is in a bullish channel (green) and needs a new break above resistance (orange) before a continuation of wave 3 (blue) is more probable. A break below the channel could change the wave count.



GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD seems to be in a wave 4 (green) consolidation zone. A bearish break could see price fall towards the bottom of the downtrend channel, which is bullish bounce or bearish break spot.




1 hour

The GBP/USD broke the support trend line (dotted green) but price action has been corrective after the break. If price does not manage to break below the 61.8% target with a good impulse, then the wave 4 (green) could become expanded with a bigger correction.




USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY remains in a consolidation territory as long as price stays in between support and resistance (red/blue).


1 hour

A bearish ABC zigzag (blue) seems the most likely at the moment if price manages to break the local resistance (orange) and retest the bigger resistance zone (dark orange).

[Samirofi]

EURUSD’s Mini Bullish Channel in Larger Contracting Triangle


January 12, 2016 05:52

EUR/USD

4 hour : The EUR/USD is building a triangle chart pattern which are clearly marked by the orange resistance and green support trend lines.



1 hour : The EUR/USD retraced deeply and fell towards the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. A deep pullback is typical for a wave 1-2 scenario, which could be the wave structure for the EURUSD within a wave C (purple).



GBP/USD

4 hour : The GBP/USD downtrend is accelerating within the wave 5's (pink/blue) and heading lower towards Fibonacci targets. A break beyond the 61.8% Fibonacci target increases the chances of the wave C (purple) being replaced by a wave 3.


1 hour : The GBP/USD made a deep retracement for wave 4 (blue) but did respect the bottom of wave 1 (blue). An alternative wave count could be a wave orange 1-2 (instead of 3-4).


USD/JPY

4 hour : The USD/JPY downtrend remains strong as long as price remains below the resistance trend line (orange). Price is approaching new support levels (blue) from a daily chart.


1 hour : The USD/JPY completed an ABC (orange) correction within wave 2 (pink) and is now near the top of the downtrend channel (red) and the inner support of the correction (green).

[Samirofi]

GBP/USD and USD/JPY bullish pullbacks in down trend

January 26, 2016 05:34

EUR/USD

4 hour : The EUR/USD has shown a bullish bounce at support (green). A break below support could see price fall towards the Fibonacci levels.


1 hour :The EUR/USD bounce could be part of a larger correction up to resistance (red) which could be marked as wave 1 or A. The break below support invalidates this wave count.


GBP/USD

4 hour :The GBP/USD has reached the top of the larger downtrend channel, which has created a bearish bounce. The bearish price action, however, has acted corrective so far, which increases the chances of a larger WXY (green) correction taking place.


1 hour :The GBP/USD seems to be in a bearish ABC (blue) zigzag within wave X (green). A break of resistance could initiate a bigger bullish correction as part of wave Y (green). The Fibonacci levels are potential bouncing spots.


USD/JPY

4 hour :The USD/JPY is labeled as a wave X (green) correction. Price could retrace to higher Fibonacci levels before completing the correction.


1 hour :The USD/JPY seems to have completed the bullish ABC zigzag (pink) and price is now showing a bearish correction. The trend lines will help measure whether price is able to push higher as part of a larger wave X (green) or break below support (green) to potentially complete wave X (green).

[Samirofi]

GBP/USD ABC zigzag break above resistance


January 27, 2016 05:20

EUR/USD

4 hour : An EUR/USD break below the support (green) trend line could see price fall towards the Fibonacci levels of wave X vs. W. A break above the resistance (orange) trend line could price move towards the Fibonacci targets of wave Y vs. W.


1 hour : The EUR/USD bounce at support on the 4 hour chart could cause an ABC bullish zigzag (blue).



GBP/USD

4 hour :The GBP/USD has broken above various resistance levels (dotted reds). Price seems to be correcting the downtrend via a WXY (green) as part of a larger wave 4 (purple).



1 hour :The GBP/USD seems to be in a bearish ABC (blue) zigzag within wave Y (green). The Fibonacci levels of wave B (blue) are potential bouncing spots.



USD/JPY

4 hour :The USD/JPY is labeled as a wave X (green) correction, which could either already have been completed at the most recent high or could be expanded with a larger WXY (blue) correction as shown in the image.



1 hour: The USD/JPY is building a contracting triangle pattern as indicated by the trend lines (red and green).

[Samirofi]

Trend lines on EUR/USD indicate multiple patterns


January 28, 2016 06:16


EUR/USD

4 hour An EUR/USD is building an ABC zigzag within the larger triangle formation.


1 hour:The EUR/USD has multiple support (green) and resistance (red) trend lines above and below price action.


GBP/USD

4 hour:The GBP/USD is correcting the downtrend via a WXY (green) as part of a larger wave 4 (purple). A break below support and the wave X bottom (green) could lead to bearish breakout whereas a bounce at support could price correct longer in wave Y (green).


1 hour: The GBP/USD fell towards the support trend line (green) and Fibonacci level, which could act as a bouncing spot for the wave C (blue). A break below the bottom of wave X (green) invalidates current wave B (blue).



USD/JPY

4 hour :The USD/JPY is making a corrective chart pattern at the moment, which is indicated by the support (green) and resistance (red) trend lines. Price is retracing towards the Fibonacci levels of wave X (green).


1 hour: The USD/JPY completed a bullish ABC zigzag (pink) but price could expand the correction via a WXY (green) if the USD/JPY stays above support (2 greens).

[Samirofi]

GBP/USD expands wave 4 towards 38.2% Fibonacci level


February 02, 2016 04:30

EUR/USD

4 hour : The EUR/USD indeed bounced at the support trend line (green) and Fibonacci level. Price is now approaching the resistance level (orange) and top of the contracting triangle chart pattern. A break above resistance could see price move to higher Fibonacci targets.


1 hour: The EUR/USD broke above the inner resistance trend line (orange dotted). The bullish movement seems to be unfolding within an impulsive 5 wave (orange), which could be part of a larger ABC (green).


GBP/USD

4 hour :The GBP/USD is building a shallow angled bullish channel, which is indicated by the orange trend lines. Price bounced at the 78.6% Fibonacci level (X vs W) and is thereby expanding the retracement within wave 4 (purple).


1 hour : The GBP/USD could part of an ABC correction (pink) which expands wave 4 (purple).


USD/JPY

4 hour :The USD/JPY lost its momentum as multiple candles were not able to post a new high. The wave count is vulnerable to change if price breaks above resistance (red) or if it shows a bullish correction pattern in the near future.


1 hour: The USD/JPY is building a bearish correction (orange ABC) but will need to break below support (green) before more downside could be expected.

[Samirofi]

USD/JPY crashes through floor by breaking long-term support



EUR/USD

4 hour: The EUR/USD has made a bullish bounce at the 38.2% Fibonacci level and is now resting the top (red). A break above resistance confirms the development of a wave A (green), whereas a bearish bounce could price retest the wave X (blue) Fibonacci levels. This wave count is invalidated when price breaks below the support trend line (green).


1 hourThe EUR/USD is marked as a wave 1 (green) but is dependent on how price reacts at resistance and support levels (bounce or break).



GBP/USD

4 hour :The GBP/USD has reached the 50% Fibonacci level of wave X (blue), which could be a bullish turning spot. A break above the resistance trend line (orange) is needed before the completion of wave X can be confirmed because otherwise price might fall towards lower Fib levels. This wave count is invalidated when price breaks below the support trend line (green).


1 hour :The GBP/USD is probably building another ABC bearish zigzag pattern (green) unless price manages to break out of the bearish channel (dark green & orange).


USD/JPY

4 hour :The USD/JPY has broken the long-term daily and weekly horizontal support levels (dotted blue). The bullish bounce for wave X (brown) retraced to a very shallow 23.6% Fibonacci level before continuing down lower and breaking support.


1 hour:The USD/JPY is either building an ABC (light green) zigzag or a 123 (green) within a wave A (blue), which will depend on whether price can reach the Fibonacci targets.