GBP USD

[Samirofi]

GBP USD attempts to break the support 25/07/2013



The pair ended yesterday’s trading with bearish bias to attempt to break the bullish channel’s support line, but the EMA50 is forming a support line now that attempts to protect the price from more decline.

Stochastic provides positive overlapping signal now that supports the chances to turn back to the positive trading, which allows us to continue suggesting the bullish trend which remains valid and active unless the price showed a daily close below 1.5250

Expected trading range for today is between: 1.5200 support and 1.5500 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bullish

[PCMNewsdesk]

The GBP was able to gain versus the USD and climbed more than 600 pips in the past three weeks until it rebounded at the resistance level around 1.5433 close to a five week high.
Currently the pair is decreasing and has crossed the bullish trend line two days ago. According to the stochastic the support level around 1.52223 is not strong enough to stop the fall so further losses are more than likely.

[PCMAnalyst]

there is a buuterfly harmonic pattern by H4 time frame. we are expecting to see the rate fall due to negative divergence.

[PCMAnalyst]

The price is going down by a bearish trend and furthermore we see it falling along with the trend after S level became R . we expect to see the continuation of price drop by breaking through 1.4788.

[PCMAnalyst]

The price was swinging in a congestion range after the low of the triangle was broken we saw it to drop and by facing a demand again we had it risen as a pullback to the upper channel line. Currently the price is oscillating under this triangle and we still expect it dropping unless it pierces through lower triangle in the pair.

[PCMAnalyst]

We saw the rate growth around 1.5160 after blowing up the downtrend line in H1 TF. it is Currently fluctuating around conversion level. We’ll see it grow if this hurdle breaks through strongly. otherwise we expect losses by increasing in supply pressure.

[Samirofi]

Midday update for GBP USD 05/08/2013



The pair rallied to the upside reinforcing the expectations with more expected bullish bias for today, as we are waiting for main targets that begin at 1.5530

Therefore, the morning suggested overview remains valid and active conditioned by stability above 1.5180

Expected trading range for today is between: 1.5180 support and 1.5500 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bullish

[Samirofi]

GBP USD hits the initial targets 08/08/2013



The pair rallied to the upside strongly hitting our waited targets for yesterday at 1.5530, and the rise stops temporarily affected by stochastic negativity.

In general, the upside trend will remain valid and active on the intraday and short term basis, depending on trading within the upside channel, and the next targets at 1.5625 and extend to 1.5860

Expected trading range for today is between: 1.5350 support and 1.5700 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bullish

[Samirofi]

The highly anticipated BOE Inflation Report is out, and it triggers a lot of action. Carney announces that he will not hike interest rates until unemployment drops to 7%. He is taking a page from the Fed.

GBP/USD was sliding below 1.53 towards the release, also suffering from a general USD strength in markets. And now, GBP/USD extends its drops and falls all the way to 1.5207 before bouncing back above 1.5215. Update: during the press conference, cable is recovering back to 1.5250.

U-turn: After the crash, GBP/USD is now bouncing back big time and trading at 1.5340 – a move of 140 pips.

Update 2: GBP/USD breached 1.54 in a 200 pip move during Carney’s press conference.

Press conference highlights:

• MPC judges a significant amount of slack in the economy.
• Sustained robust growth is needed.
• CPI is likely to remain around the 2.9%: import prices push inflation. Underlying domestic pressures remain subdued.
• Recovery is underway and broadening.
• More QE could be seen if needed.
• No reduction of QE due if unemployment remains above 7%.
• Primary goal of BOE is price stability. Inflation is expected to slide below 2% in 2015.
• A fall of unemployment under 7% will not trigger a rate hike – it is a threshold, not a trigger (same as Fed).
• The move is meant to assure that interest rates will not rise prematurely and provide more clarity.
• Median unemployment rate should be 7.3% in the end of the 3 year horizon.
• Forward guidance doesn’t mean automatic moves, but just provides more clarity. It is part of a mixed strategy: low interest rates, QE and Funding for Lending scheme.
• Relief of new growth, but no reason for satisfaction.

In the recent rate decision, the BOE did not change policy but did promise to publish a review about forward guidance in the upcoming inflation report, raising expectations.

The most updated economic indicators were all positive: growth reached 0.6% in Q2, PMIs are running higher (with the most important sector, services, crossing the high 60 line), stronger retail sales a fall in unemployment.

However, with persistently high inflation, it is hard for the Bank of England to make real policy moves. Clear resistance is at 1.54 with 1.5330 working as minor resistance. Support lies at 1.5260 followed by 1.52.

[PCMAnalyst]

We can see an inverted ab=cd harmonic pattern in daily TF. We are expecting to have the price going down if a fresh selling pressure steps up.